Gulf

1. Aramco extends profit slide
2. Incorrect Vision 2030 metric
3. Kuwait plans Saudi deals…
4. …buys Chinese ammunition
5. Abu Dhabi wins Sphere rights

One way to beat a fertility slump: subsidized weddings.

Aramco slump pressures Saudi plans

Aramco’s 10th straight decline in quarterly profit is adding pressure to Saudi Arabia’s economic transformation plans. Shares in the oil giant are down more than 40% from their 2022 peak, and the company now trades at a discount to peers like Exxon and Chevron.

Aramco’s dividends are vital to funding Riyadh’s $1.15 trillion sovereign wealth fund, which bankrolls Saudi’s investments into sectors like AI, tourism, and mining — core to the country’s effort to diversify away from fossil fuels. But with oil prices at about $68 a barrel, well below the $90+ level needed to balance the kingdom’s budget, Saudi Arabia has turned to borrowing, both directly and via Aramco.

Despite rising deficits, the IMF this week praised Saudi reforms and urged continued investment in non-oil sectors. It raised the kingdom’s 2025 growth forecast by 0.6 percentage points to 3.6%, while warning of risks from lower oil prices, regional instability, and global trade tensions. And, for its part, Aramco remains bullish: “We are seeing ongoing strength in oil demand,” said Amin Nasser, the company’s president and CEO.

The length of The Line isn’t Vision 2030

Lower oil revenue and growing international borrowing have turned Saudi Arabia into a net importer of capital and triggered a review of megaprojects like NEOM, raising broader questions about the kingdom’s economic transformation. At a Council on Foreign Relations panel, former US Ambassador Michael Ratney said: “People seem to use the length of The Line — this 100-mile glass city in the desert — as the metric of Vision 2030,” when it’s actually marginal, especially as the project was conceived with the assumption of higher oil prices.

The goal of Vision 2030 is building a viable post-oil economy and advancing social development, particularly for women. The latter has already exceeded expectations, while success in sectors like manufacturing, tech, and tourism could take decades, Ratney said.

Kuwait plans $164B fund targeting Saudi

Kuwait is reportedly planning to invest up to 50 billion dinars ($164 billion) in major regional projects, with Saudi Arabia expected to be a top destination. The country will form a new company that will focus on energy, transport, infrastructure, smart cities, and manufacturing in the kingdom, Riyadh-based Al Eqtisadiah newspaper reported. The move, which is still being considered by the government, follows reports that Kuwait’s $1 trillion sovereign wealth fund — considered a sleeping giant in the region for its mammoth size but relative inactivity compared to Gulf peers — will open a Saudi office to boost cross-border investments.

The potential decision is a boon for Saudi Arabia, which aims to attract $100 billion in annual foreign direct investment by 2030. That target may prove elusive given current levels of FDI, with only around $20 billion brought in last year. Gulf investors, however, are key: The UAE is the largest investor in the kingdom.

China, Kuwait build joint ammo plant

China and Kuwait are deepening their military cooperation, with an expanding training program and the opening of a joint ammunition factory in Kuwait. Little is known about the plant, which was announced last year and reportedly produces light and medium ammunition, according to the South China Morning Post. The two countries began joint military training programs in 2019, and Beijing supplies Kuwait with 155mm cannons.

Still, despite growing defense and trade ties with China — a trend seen across the Gulf — the US remains the region’s top military partner. Kuwait, for example, receives nearly two-thirds of its arms from Washington and hosts 13,500 US soldiers on its territory.

Abu Dhabi plans to build more Spheres

Las Vegas’ Sphere is getting a Middle East franchise. Abu Dhabi has secured a decade‑long license to build and operate Sphere arenas across the Middle East and North Africa, according to travel industry publication Skift. The UAE capital will be the world’s second city to open its own Sphere, the massive, glowing LED entertainment orb which debuted off the Vegas Strip in 2023 with a $2.3 billion price tag and a 20,000-person capacity. Potential additional locations in the region may include Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, and Israel, based on trademark applications, Skift reported.

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Energy Transition

• Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power was awarded contracts to develop two solar plants in Morocco, each with 400 megawatts of capacity. The company operates in 15 countries and has a power generating capacity of 69 gigawatts.

Finance

• Saudi Arabia and the UAE pulled further ahead of other Middle Eastern countries in private equity activity, accounting for 86% of total deal value in the first half of 2025. Overall deal value declined by 11% during the same period, according to data analytics firm Magnitt.

Property

• A Qatari royal is eyeing a trophy property in Milan. Gucci owner Kering is in talks to sell a majority stake in its €1.3 billion Via Montenapoleone property to an entity linked to former Qatari Prime Minister Hamad bin Jassim Al Thani. — Reuters

Tech

• Stargate — the global AI infrastructure platform backed by OpenAI, Oracle, SoftBank, and Abu Dhabi’s MGX — plans to build its first European data center in Norway. Stargate Norway will house 100,000 Nvidia chips. Two local companies will own the site, putting up $1 billion for the first phase of the project.

Dubai’s plan to incentivize its citizens to marry has been the foundation of a major share of weddings in the emirate. Launched in late 2023, the program — which offers marriage planning, modern wedding venues, and post-wedding counseling — has resulted in more than 700 marriages and now accounts for a quarter of the city’s weddings.

These aren’t the fabled, multimillion-dollar Indian celebrations (or New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani’s relatively austere rooftop nuptials in the city). The mass ceremonies are short on pomp and are intended to reduce costs and help Emiratis, who are facing declining fertility, start families.